Systems Analysis
WP leader : Daniel Müller
Data gathering, stakeholder involvement and model development: An existing phosphorus flow analysis model of Norway developed by the applicants (H. A. Hamilton et al. 2016; H. A. Hamilton, Brod, et al. 2015) will be used as the starting point of this work package. Further development of the model will take place in coordination with key stakeholders along the value chain, i.e. the advisory board. The model will be made spatially explicit using GIS, which will be a novel methodology of relevance to the international scientific community. Data will be collected, analyzed and cross-checked in collaboration with Statistics Norway (SSB). In addition, a data platform will be built to enable ease of access and further model development with other critical substances
Identification of largest systems-wide opportunities for recycling secondary products based on geographical resolution: Localized secondary P recycling opportunities will be developed for industry use. This industry-oriented research will open up intra- and inter-sectoral opportunities for recycling P, which will be of strategic importance for companies to both (i) identify their secondary P potential and, thus, ability to create new value-added products, (ii) their proximity to other industries that can process their by-products into new value-added products and (iii) determine their localized demand for secondary P. Because individual sectors rarely analyze cross sectoral opportunities to utilize resources, this will have a large impact on user groups including large fish farming companies, e.g. advisory board member Lerøy Midt, and crop and fertilizer producers, e.g. advisory board member Norsk Naturgjødsel, due to the new opportunities for integrating industries.
Barriers and opportunities
WP Leader : Anne Falk Øgaard
WP3.1. Secondary Resources for Agriculture Use
Pot experiments to analyze the P fertilization effects of secondary resources: A pot experiment will be conducted to study the P fertilization effects of different secondary resources (fish sludge and manure) that have been treated using various technologies. The effect of different soil conditions (e.g. soil P status, soil pH) on P fertilization effects of the secondary resources will be evaluated. The P fertilization effects of secondary resources will be compared with an unfertilized control treatment and mineral P fertilizer to determine mineral fertilizer equivalents. These insights are relevant to the international science community and will, therefore, be published in an international scientific journal.
Further, a literature study will be conducted on P fertilization effects of manure-based secondary resources that have undergone different treatment technologies to increase the dry matter content of manure. In addition, a literature study will be conducted, in dialogue with relevant stakeholders, on promising manure drying/concentrating technologies to do so. Data on the relative fertilization effects of secondary resources compared with mineral fertilizer of the pot experiment and the literature study will be utilized in the systems analysis.
WP3.2. Secondary Resources for Aquaculture Use
A collaboration between the Danish Technical University (DTU) and NTNU Biology contributes with two ‘in-kind’ phd researchers that focus on integrated multi-trophic aquaculture production (IMTA) and the applications for the produced IMTA products.
Nutrient balances for aquaculture systems in Norway: Here, we characterize the inorganic P species used as a basis for nutrient balance calculations.
Field and laboratory experiments to optimize IMTA design: We use results from task 3.3 to inform experimental work to optimize spawning material and hatchery conditions for IMTA design and identify new cultivation substrates. In addition, we conduct open water grow out testing and evaluate/optimize the possibility of different wastes as a basis for secondary biomass production.
Analyze applications for IMTA products: Efficient techniques for IMTA mass production are essential for establishing a viable sector. Here, cost effective applications for seaweed will be explored including Saccharina latissimi, Palmaria palmate and Alaria esculenta and chelaetes analyzed in the project in the previous task
WP3.3. Economic Analysis of Secondary P Recycling Technologies
A cost-benefit analysis for each recycling route (sectoral and cross-sectoral) based on the technologies analyzed in this project will be carried out in the following tasks.
Conduct a cost-benefit analysis for collecting, treating, transporting and applying manure as a secondary fertilizer: Promising technologies identified by literature study will be analyzed in dialogue with advisory board members Foss Gård, Norsk Naturgjødsel, Landbruksdirektoratet, etc.
Conduct a cost-benefit analysis for collecting treating, transporting and applying fish sludge as secondary fertilizer: Advisory board member Lerøy will advise us and provide data on costs.
We will aslo conduct a cost-benefit analysis of IMTA systems based on WP3.2 in collaboration with NTNU Biology and DTU
WP3.4. Interviews for Consumer Acceptance
Prepare interview guide, select interviewees and conduct semi-structured interviews to obtain data on preferred product quality and acceptable sources of fertilizer products & acceptance of integrating IMTA into sea-based aquaculture: A series of interviews will be conducted with targeted user groups (e.g. farmers, fertilizer distributers aquaculture companies) to obtain data on their willingness to accept alternative P products and systems. This will include the perceived or actual risks, for example soil contamination from toxic secondary products, aquaculture liability for products produced in the same location as primary salmon production, etc. The interviews will be shaped by the results from previous tasks.
Scenarios and Pathways
WP leader: Daniel Müller
Develop new model based on the integration of the systems model (WP2) and the key findings from WP3: Here, we incorporate the key findings and systems learning from previous tasks into the developed spatially explicit systems model using a quantitative approach. This will serve as the basis for the pathway development in the following task
Scenario development: Pathways to mineral P independence in Norway using the storyline developed in collaboration with relevant stakeholders (workshop 2): Scenario development will include driver identification for (i) the projected background trends taking place in Norwegian agriculture, aquaculture and human behavior and (ii) the alternative recycling routes (localized, sectoral or cross sectoral based on analyzed technologies). Drivers for (i) will include expected drastic aquaculture growth (DKNVS and NTVA, 2012), population growth, diet changes, increased lifetime for smolt in onshore production facilities and (ii) will include the (to be identified) environmentally, economically, socially sustainable alternative secondary P utilization routes.